Girls tournament forecast: Upset bids, district title picks and potential Cinderellas

Derrick Webb, Staff Writer

Southern Ohio Sports Authority is presented by OhioHealth.

CHILLICOTHE — Tournament seeds have been revealed, brackets have been released and the best part of the season, in our opinion, is upon us.

A loss means the end of the road while a win means moving on. This is where we’ve seen average teams become great. It’s where great players make a name for themselves. It’s where pressure can be your best friend or your worst enemy.

But most of all, it’s where legendary stories find their origins.

Here’s a brief preview of what to look for during the most exciting part of the year.

First round games to watch

DIVISION II: No. 9 Waverly (15-6) at No. 8 Circleville (17-4): There isn’t much to dislike about this matchup. Two 1,000 point scorers in Waverly’s Kelli Stewart and Bailey Vulgamore going up against three potential 1,000 point scorers in Circleville’s Faith Yancey, Gabby McConnell and Maddie Blakeman. Then you throw in Waverly’s Caris Risner and Paige O’Bryant as well as Circleville’s Morgan Blakeman and Maddux Bigam, and you’ve got yourself a dogfight to advance. Both sets of Tigers feature stout defenses — Waverly is allowing 39.3 points per game while Circleville surrenders 35.6. Both have star-studded players. It has all the makings of an instant classic.

DIVISION II: No. 11 Athens (14-8) at No. 6 Jackson (15-5): Just 44 miles separate these two schools and the Bulldogs will make a trip down State Route 32 to try and knock off the FAC-champion Ironladies. Mattie Walburn, TJ Carpenter, Kenzie Davis and Sydney Hughes will try and stop that from happening and they’ll certainly come into the matchup favored to win. However, Athens brings in a team ready to fight for glory. The Bulldogs, who recorded the most wins since 2014-15, will be led by a combination of Ella Chapman, Olivia Smart, Quinn Banks and Fern Sigman, who all have the ability to be game-changers. With a sectional title on the line, there’s no reason not to expect a barnburner.  

DIVISION III: No. 14 Peebles (13-9) at No. 11 Minford (13-8): Upset? Could be. Peebles has all the right pieces, starting with the ultra-talented Payton Johnson. When Johnson gets help from teammates Abigail Smalley, Lily McFarland, Cadence Carroll and Angel Gray, the Indians are flat-out dangerous. Meanwhile, the Falcons boast of an array of capable scorers themselves, including Lexi Conkel, Lindsee Williams, Maggie Risner and Ava Cronin. Both of these teams have been battle-tested all year long, playing in basketball-minded conferences. If you’ve got a chance to get any first-round game in Division III, spend your money on this one.

Upset alerts

These teams have a chance at pulling off first or second-round upsets.

They gotta play us.

South Webster: On paper, the No. 15 seeded Jeeps will travel to No. 10 Chesapeake. But the eye test may suggest those seeds need to be switched around. Chesapeake will come into the two’s sectional final meeting with an 8-0 record outside conference play. However, the Panthers haven’t met a team like South Webster in those eight contests. Skylar Zimmerman leads SW in scoring with 16 points per night while Bella Claxon, Kerith Wright and Addison Claxon are all averaging six or more. That’s not to say Chesapeake doesn’t have scorers of their own. Sophi Hutchinson and Kate Ball are certainly capable of going for 20 points on any given night. However, with the Jeeps’ schedule and personnel, you have to think they have all the right pieces to pull off an upset and advance.

Portsmouth: Here’s a name you need to know throughout the next three seasons: Sienna Allen. The do-it-all freshman has helped the Trojans right the ship with the ability to score, defend and rebound the basketball. When you put her alongside Daysha Reid and Savannah Cantrell, who can also fill up the stat sheet, you’ve created a three-headed monster. Should Portsmouth win a sectional title with a win over Meigs or Oak Hill, if the seeds play out, Adena would be next on the docket. The Warriors are a good team with an elite talent leading the way in Emma Garrison. But Allen, Reid, Cantrell and company pose a real threat to knock them off.

Fairfield Union: If there’s one team I wouldn’t want to play right now, it may just be the Falcons. After starting the season 6-9, they’ve won five straight and have taken down Amanda-Clearcreek, Jackson and Bloom-Carroll in the process. Junior guard Elly Lewis can take over a game when she feels like it, Nicole Terry has a proven track record, Christian Thompson is as talented as they come, and Isabella Neal is … well Isabella Neal. What’s not to like? The Falcons, who were given a No. 12 seed, will travel to No. 5 Warren for a sectional final matchup. The Warriors already beat Fairfield Union once this season — a 55-42 victory on Nov. 29. However, that game seems like it took place eons ago at this point. The Falcons are, without a doubt, clicking. That could spell trouble for any favored opponent.

Cinderella favorites

Why not us?

That’s the rallying cry that so many teams are preaching right now. 

To be a Cinderella, you have to peak at the right time, have a great coaching staff, feature at least one elite player and … as always … lady luck has to be in your corner.

Fairfield, Eastern Brown and Rock Hill fit that criteria.

FAIRFIELD: Let’s start with the obvious … senior Peyton Magee is the definition of special. The Lions’ point guard has wowed spectators since her freshman year and has taken on a leadership role throughout this season. Magee is averaging 18.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 3.3 steals each night. It’s ridiculous. But she also has a boatload of talent around her. Faith Donley, Hannah Hamilton and Hailey Tolle all come to mind, and each of those names are posting over six points per game. If this group can win its first two games, they’d likely get North Adams in a district final — who they’re very familiar with. The Devils have beaten the Lions twice this season, but what’s that saying about beating a good team three times? Much stranger things have happened.

EASTERN BROWN: Senior Rylee Leonard. There’s your reason. This entire paragraph could stop here. But we’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. Eastern’s senior is one of the top scorers in the state of Ohio, averaging 28.9 points per game alongside 3.9 steals and 2.7 assists. She’s nailed 74 triples and has absolutely disintegrated opposing defenses in the process. But, you’ve also got Sarah Clark and McKinzie Dotson to worry about, who are combining for 15.8 points, 12.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists each game. The Warriors have a star player who’s used to tournament play, a coach that’s beyond experienced in big games and a hungry supporting cast. Their path to a district title, if the seeds play out? Southeastern, Nelsonville-York, Wheelersburg.

ROCK HILL: It’s hard enough to contain Rock Hill’s Hazley Matthews. But it’s an absolute problem when you’re trying to stop her, Haydn Bailey and Jlynn Risner all in the same night. That trio has paced the Redwomen to a 16-6 mark while playing a loaded schedule. Hayleigh Risner, Lola Hankins and Hope Easterling are also able to provide a boost, giving Rock Hill options to turn to in times of trouble. To win a district title, this group would have to get through, potentially, Federal Hocking, Fairfield and North Adams. That’s a tall, tall task. But if any team has the weapons to pull that feat off, it’d be Rock Hill. They’ve played in tournament-like atmospheres, they’re a tight-knit group and they play relentlessly. That’s a recipe for success. 

Bold predictions

Here’s the part where you find my email and send me a flurry of angered messages.

Don’t look too much into these. After all, we’re writers, not prophets.

A. Each of the district’s top two, or three seeds, win district championships. It doesn’t happen often. But this year, it will. There’s just too much talent on each team to disprove that statement. Does that mean they won’t face tough-nosed competition? Absolutely not. They’ll have to earn every single win, per usual. But the top two seeds in Divisions I and IV, and the top three seeds in Division III, should all be playing in the regional tournament. 

B. Portsmouth will reach a district final. As mentioned earlier, the Trojans absolutely have the firepower to make a deep tournament run. If they do make it to a district final and the seeds fall how they’re supposed to fall, Portsmouth would meet with West. Will they win that game and claim a district championship? Let’s not go that far. Will they have a chance to win that game? Absolutely, yes. With their talent, don’t ever count the Trojans out. They’re dangerous.

C. If Fairland and Unioto meet in a regional semifinal, the winner will go to the Final 4. This isn’t a ridiculously bold prediction but it’s one-hundred percent possible. Both of these teams are two of the best we’ve ever covered. If you don’t believe me, just go ahead and take their combined 43-0 record as evidence. If we were to name and describe the players on each team that make a difference each night — Tomi Hinkle, Bree Allen, Milee Smith, Amaris Betts, etc. — that could be an entire separate article. But if you’ve watched either of these teams play, you understand they could be destined to make history. Just circle Feb. 28 on your calendar. That will be the date where these two could meet in Zanesville in a regional semifinal. That’s sure to be an instant classic.

So, who wins district titles?

Again, we don’t know the future. And don’t bet your mortgage on these picks. But who do we THINK win district titles? Well …

Division II: No. 1 Fairland (21-0) and No. 2 Unioto (22-0)

Division III: No. 1 North Adams (22-0), No. 2 West (21-1) and No. 3 Wheelersburg (20-2)

Division IV: No. 1 Notre Dame (18-2) and No. 2 South Gallia (18-3)

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